Fishing Forecast - October Full Moon

The calendar officially turned to fall this week, and the fish know it. We've had a great weather window the past few weeks. Cool nights and mornings with a lot of northeast wind has been the norm, and the fishing has been great. Although it's been steady, it looks like there are some storms brewing in the tropics, so October may be a bit more turbulent than this September has been. Time will tell if that's good or bad for our RI fishery. I'd expect the bass and bottom fishing to stay good through October regardless of if/how the storms impact us. As far as albies and bonito, it's really a coin flip whether it will push action up into the bay or if it will drag them back out to sea. Either way, the only way to know is to go, and we still have some steady weather ahead of us before we have to deal with whatever October may bring.
Hardtails
All of the hardtails have come to play this fall. After last year's bonito (and only bonito) fest, this fall run has brought good numbers of albies, spanish mackerel, and as many bonito as you could want. Now that the albies have been around for a couple of weeks, they're getting more finicky. That's a pretty common theme - the first wave of fish are hungry, then once they settle into an area for a week or two they get harder to fool. Then, before they move out, they tend to feed hard again. Sometimes when they're finicky, doing something different and outside of the box can get you bit. That can include both baits, and the way you present those baits. You may not necessarily have to change what you're throwing - just throw it differently. For example, dropping an Epoxy/Metal vertically and ripping it back to the surface can be super effective when fish are up and down quickly or if there's a fleet constantly putting feeds down. As another example, if your weapon of choice is an Albie Snax, there must be dozen different cadences to try with a Snax before you can truly say "they don't want it". Try it fast and skipping across the surface, low and slow with very little action, and everything in between.

A nice albie on the kayak that fell for a 3/8 Hogy Epoxy Minnow (shrimp).
As far as both spanish mackerel and bonito, if you can put something reasonable in front of them, they're pretty likely to eat it. Both are more likely to eat a Swimmer/Minnow Plug than an albie, either casting and retrieving or trolling. The Yo Zuri Mag Minnow and Yo Zuri Crystal Minnow are favorites. As far as color, there's generally little reason to vary from the big 3 - white, pink, and silver. Sure, with the abundance of bay anchovies it's a good idea to have some orange or amber on hand. That said, hardtails love white and pink, and just about every baitfish that swims is mostly silver. Don't overcomplicate it.

Ken with a stud spanish mackerel last week, mixed in with albie feeds.
Everything Else
This time of year, the fishing for everything heats up. From bass, to surface-feeding black seabass, metal-eating tog, and aggressive schools of weakfish, there's a lot to of action to be had on any given day. The bass fishing has been good, with boat, kayak, and surf guys all getting in on the action. They've been on mostly small bait, however the abundance of squid around gives you some more options. Albie Snax are hard to beat, but small topwater plugs like the Rebel Jumpin Minnow and Game On! X Walk also come back into play for the fall run. Surf guys have been doing particularly well on Needlefish and Little Neck Poppers. It's also a great time of year to break out the fly rod and throw some Striper Flies or Albie/Bonito Flies to match the hatch.

Jon with a healthy surf-caught bass on a Yo Zuri Mag Pencil.
The bottom fishing has really picked up in the last week or two with the steady northeast winds and cooling water temps. Black sea bass are ravenous, even blitzing on the surface on bait balls all over the state. The weakfish bite has also been heating up, though they can be tricky to locate. They seem to be hit or miss, but when you get on top of a school, the bite can be hot. Metals/Epoxy Jigs, Paddle Tails, and straight-tail plastics like the Zoom Fluke and BWB Tweaker are all great options for both sea bass and weakfish. Weakfish love white, pink, and glow if you're trying to decide on color.

Paul with one of many beautiful weakfish the other day.
The tautog bite is also heating up. The best part of the season is still ahead of us, but there's no shortage of fish to be caught. You may run into mostly shorts right now. As the water continues to cool down, the ratio of keepers to shorts should grow. Both Jigs and Rigs will get the job done depending on your fishing style, if you're on boat or shore, and the depth you're fishing. As a general rule of thumb, if you're fishing deep water with good current, a rig will keep you in the strike zone. If you're fishing shallower, I prefer a jig for the bite sensitivity and hookup ratio. It comes down to preference as well - there's no wrong answer. Over the next couple of weeks, don't be surprised if you pull some nice tog on Metals/Epoxy Jigs as they are very willing to hit a jig with the abundance of small bait around. Once the water cools into the low 60s, crabs are definitely the way to go.
























Joe Nemer
September 26, 2025
Stop the wind turbine , I fish in Sandy hook nj and because of the Murphy dumb turbines the fishing is terrible and the party fishing fleets will be destroyed and the fishing will end